Substantial

AI Predictions Dinner · Missoni Baia, Miami · 28 April 2026

Twenty‑five predictions, six months on

Ten people sat down in Miami and put twenty‑five claims about AI on the table. Twelve went to a vote. Here is what the room thought then, what has happened since, and where you land now.

Seven themes · pick a card to jump to it

Agreed Disagreed Split 5–5 Never voted

Who was at the table

The cards. Every prediction and every April vote count is transcribed verbatim from the prediction‑vote log of the 2026 AI Dinners sheet, read at source on 31 August 2026. Two spelling errors in the original are corrected; nothing else is changed.

The commentary. Seventeen cards also show who has written about them since — Ethan Mollick, Zvi Mowshowitz, Ben Thompson, Lenny Rachitsky, Khe Hy, Ben’s Bites and others. This shows where the conversation is happening, but is not counted as evidence.

The evidence. Sixteen cards carry links, found and read by hand on 2 September 2026. The standard is what a source can prove: company filings and earnings statements, government statistics, peer‑reviewed research and preprints, the labs’ own incident reports, and the trade press. Nothing here is scraped or auto‑matched, and a link is attached only where it clearly points toward the prediction or against it.